On Updates Yeah, that really did happen. A former president is being prosecuted for the first time in American history.

Several sources close to former President Donald Trump revealed to NPR on Thursday that a grand jury in New York decided to indict him on charges relating to hush money payments made to purportedly cover up relationships Trump had.

The Trump Republican machine then got to work, releasing a political playbook designed to protect the outgoing president among his supporters. That has seemed to work with them, but an unusual split has appeared: Although Trump’s brand has been toxic with many Americans, it has been reinforced with Republicans.

Trump claimed in a statement late Thursday night that “This is Political Persecution and Electoral Interference at the greatest level in history.” It was “an act of obvious election interference,” he said, that would “backfire” on Democrats. He also assailed the Democratic New York district attorney who filed the charges, Alvin Bragg.

Republican support for him may be waning, but CPAC remains the Trump show.
POLITICS
Republican support for him may be waning, but CPAC remains the Trump show.
The indictment was referred to as a “extraordinary misuse of authority” by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Jim Jordan, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, issued a statement that contained just the word “outrageous.”
Of course, a prosecutor or judge didn’t just decide to bring an indictment against Trump. A grand jury considers whether there is sufficient evidence to bring criminal charges against a person after hearing the prosecutor’s testimony. So they did.

If there is a plot, a jury of his peers is also involved.

large stakes
Politically speaking, an indictment differs greatly from a conviction, and there are uncertainties surrounding Bragg’s real case.
All of this feeds into the grievance Trump, a millionaire from New York, has created and utilized to advance his political career. He has effectively persuaded his core group of followers that the left is out to get him and them, that the system is corrupt, and that the New York indictment and probe are nothing more than an effort to sabotage his presidential campaign.

In his remarks on Thursday evening, Trump returns to that tired cliché:

“The Radical Left Democrats, the enemy of the hard-working men and women of this Country, have been engaged in a Witch-Hunt to destroy the Make America Great Again movement from the time I came down the golden escalator at Trump Tower, and even before I was sworn in as your President of the United States,” Trump said.

The Mueller Russia investigation, two impeachments, the FBI search of his Florida home where they found boxes of classified documents, and with regard to not only this case but also the other three criminal investigations stemming from his actions after the 2020 presidential election he lost and his role in the buildup to the Jan. 6 uprising, it’s all right off the greatest hits heard during the 2016 campaign.

Don’t refer to them as “witch hunts.” Most People believe that Trump’s investigations are fair.
POLITICS
Don’t refer to them as “witch hunts.” Most People believe that Trump’s investigations are fair.
That seems to have helped him secure another GOP nomination and, in some cases, more generally with the New York case.

8 in 10 Republicans agree with Trump and term the investigations a “witch hunt,” and 8 in 10 Republicans still have a favorable image of him. The most recent NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist poll this week revealed that 57% of respondents said the criminal investigations investigating him are fair.

In response to Trump’s rhetoric, a Quinnipiac poll issued on Wednesday revealed that 6 in 10 respondents believe the probe is politically motivated and that 2/3 of all respondents believe the accusations in New York are not that serious.

By all accounts, Trump is in considerably more danger than the New York case due to the other three criminal investigations – two federal and one out of Georgia. But, Bragg filed this lawsuit first, and the stakes are quite high for him politically as well as emotionally.

It will be more difficult for Trump to argue that the allegations were politically motivated if he is found guilty. But if Trump is found not guilty, you can imagine how he would gloat of his victory. He continued to do so even after the Mueller probe failed to clear him and after his second impeachment, which occurred after Jan. 6, when a majority of senators judged him guilty but fell short of the two-thirds threshold needed for a conviction.

Primary vs. general election audience
In three consecutive election cycles, Republicans have suffered as a result of the brand they seem to be so attached to.

The GOP enjoyed unified control of power in Washington when Trump entered office. Republicans controlled the House and Senate, while Trump was in the White House.

But shortly after, things started to alter. In 2018, the Democrats took back control of the lower house as the GOP lost hundreds of House seats.

Trump was removed from office in 2020 after falling short in the popular vote by 7 million. The Senate is now under Democratic control.

Midterm defeats may make Trump’s path to the nomination more difficult than he’d prefer.
ELECTIONS
Midterm defeats may make Trump’s path to the nomination more difficult than he’d prefer.

The Republicans suffered losses in pivotal contests in swing states and tough districts in the 2022 midterm elections thanks to a large number of Trump-backed and -styled candidates.

In contrast to what often happens for the president’s party in a first midterm election, Democrats increased their Senate majority. Republicans regained control of the House, although by a smaller margin than they had anticipated.

Currently, seven of the past eight presidential elections have seen the Republican party lose the popular vote. Since the founding of the Republican Party in the 19th century, that is the worst stretch for either party in their histories.

Trump’s allegations of “witch hunts” and conspiracies appear to be uniting this version of the Republican Party behind him, but the general public has consistently turned against him – and the GOP – over the past several years.
This was made clear this week by the most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey, which revealed that 6 in 10 people, including two-thirds of independents, don’t want Trump to run for president again.

Nonetheless, 75% of Republicans indicated they wanted him to run for office once more. When it comes to a presidential primary, it is what matters.

According to Republican strategists, the only way that could change – and there’s no guarantee it would even work – is if other Republican candidates zero in on Trump’s political weaknesses, including the fact that he can only serve for four more years, portray his legal issues as a symbol of the confusion and drama that surrounds Trump, and make that case to the GOP base.

Yet to date, none have shown any genuine willingness to do so in a persistent manner, which has been the narrative of the Trump period.

However, his most important opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, criticized the New York prosecutor on Thursday and said through Twitter that “Florida would not help with an extradition request…

There isn’t even a hint that it may be possible. Trump’s attorneys and the New York district attorney’s office will most likely just agree, either in person or digitally, on a date for his arraignment.

Yet, DeSantis’ affirmative tweet highlights Trump’s influence over the GOP base. DeSantis needs to tread carefully so as not to enrage the staunchly pro-Trump GOP base, even if Trump often criticizes DeSantis’ record and personality.

Saying you want to defeat the monarch while yet expressing your love for him deeply is a terrible strategy for seeking the presidential nomination.6785678